Michael Seibel: How do you decide what to build next?

TL;DR

The video argues that deciding what to build next requires a process for rapidly building MVPs to test ideas, rather than trying to predict the right answer. The key is having a technically talented team that can build and measure quickly, then iterate only on what works. A common mistake is swinging for perfect home runs, which leads to a death spiral of long cycles and failure.

Key insights

• There is rarely a single correct answer for what to build; most ideas will not work, so the goal is to create a fast build-and-measure cycle.
• Having a technically talented team that can build MVPs quickly and without frustration is more important than being able to imagine future outcomes accurately.
• Long-term vision (10 years out) is necessary for the big picture, but trying to nail the specific tactical move for the next three months via prediction is extremely hard.