The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

TL;DR

Professor Robert Pape, who has simulated war with Iran for 20 years and advised every White House from 2001–2024, argues the U.S. is trapped in an “escalation trap” of its own making. Bombs achieve tactical success but change politics, and the enriched uranium material for 16 nuclear bombs has been dispersed and its location is unknown. Pape predicts a 75% chance the U.S.

Key insights

• Bombs don’t just hit targets; they change the politics of both the attacker and the target. This is called the “escalation trap.”
• The Iranian regime is not brittle (like a Jenga tower); it is adaptive like a matrix, filling holes left by leadership kills.
• The former supreme leader had issued two fatwas against nuclear weapons; the new supreme leader (his son) is more aggressive and has issued no such fatwa, removing a key guardrail.